We are entering into one of the most chaotic chapters of modern history, though the geographic space of this chaos is smaller than it has ever been. While most countries are experiencing less terror, Mid-Eastern terrorist have never been busier or more successful.
I downloaded data from the Global Terrorism Database, which comprises more then 125,000 individual acts of terror and found that, since 2010, the number of weekly terror events when from somewhere around 10 to more than 40, and the trend doesn’t look like it’s ending anytime soon.
Moreover, while terror events are becoming more frequent, they are becoming more and more unpredictable.
While the world was shocked over Charlie Hebdoe, the troubling scale up in the number of terror events seems to have mostly gone unnoticed. Terrorists strike Islamic countries far more than they do France, and kill more than just cartoonists and policemen.
It is unproductive to view all terror groups and even acts of terror as being the same. Terror has turned into a morass of competing groups, with differing political aims and the loose nature of Al Qaeda has led to an outsourcing of terror by any local thug with a gun.
It is also unproductive to view Mid-East terror as simply restricted to the angry victims of drone attacks. Islamic terrorism has a deep history with roots going back decades, a history which seems to be widely ignored. It is also important to note that ISIS’ membership consists of a frighteningly large number of Westerners and a careful watch of their videos reveals that English, rather than Arabic, is a common language among its followers.
Where will this go? No one knows, but Charlie Hebdoe will be just a blip on the pattern on terror.
I’m not stupid. I know that I’m much more likely to be hit by a car in Nairobi than to be killed in a terror attack, but I can at least minimize the risks of being hit by an automobile. Terror attacks, on the other hand, come from nowhere.
The Kenyatta administration has proven itself completely incapable of dealing with issues of security. It’s pathetic appropriation of the Mpeketoni attacks for petty domestic squabbles is at least as embarrassing as it is dangerous.
From Think Africa Press:
Initially, al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for Mpeketoni killings through a spokesperson, declaring that Kenya was now “officially a war zone.” However, in a speech to the nation the next day, Kenya’s President Uhuru Kenyatta dismissed the notion that the Islamist militants were behind the attack, maintaining instead that it was “politically motivated ethnic violence.”
Though he did not explicitly mention names, local media outlets interpreted Kenyatta’s allegations as being aimed at the leader of the opposition, Raila Odinga. In response to these apparent accusations, Odinga in turn blamed the Kenyatta administration for failing to address the security situation since Westgate and called for the resignation of Joseph ole Lenku, Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for the Ministry of Interior and Coordination of National Government.
Opposition leader Raila Odinga, a seasoned Luo politician affiliated with the Orange Democratic Party, has been rattling the cage for the past few months, demanding a “dialogue” with the Presidential office. Kenyatta, who ran on a platform of unity, appears uninterested in engaging the Luo stalwart.
If he doesn’t engage Raila, we’re guaranteed a day of demonstrations and inevitable rioting on July 7th, the day celebrating the birth (return to?) multipartyism in Kenya during Moi’s disastrous Presidency. It’s going to be a bloodbath, and Kenyatta will be watching in the safety of the State House. Most likely, though, he’ll be quietly watching football. Regular folks will be blaming this or that tribe for the fallout and we’ll slowly return to the bad old days of tribal violence.
Most troubling is Kenyatta’s refusal to engage the West, instead trying to curry short-term favors from China. A new road to allow Kenyan elites to move around the outskirts of Nairobi is worth more than solid security assistance from the West. Even more troubling is the seeming lack of interest from the Obama admin to a spreading terror threat in East Africa. Recruitment among Kenyans has become even easier given Kenya’s growing political divide, providing a ripe breeding ground for violence which could spread far beyond Kenya’s borders and potentially destabilize the most important economy in East Africa.
From Think Africa Press:
A domestic threat
So far this year, there have been 14 attacks in Nairobi, Mombasa and the nearby coastal tourist area, according to data from Terrorism Tracker. By contrast, there were just eight such incidents in these areas in the whole of 2013. This also marks a geographical shift in the threat, with attacks now being more common in Nairobi, Mombasa and the coast than in the northeastern region bordering Somalia. Although al-Shabaab continues to mount infrequent mass casualty operations inside Kenya, it seems to be Kenyan militant groups operating from Nairobi and Mombasa that now pose the greatest threat.
So the line between Al Shabab and local “militant groups,” the nature of which is mostly unknown, the credit for which goes to a policy of non-communication from the Kenyan Government itself. The Americans are quite good at identifying the nature of the threats, though also quite adept at defining it thereby giving militant groups an opportunity to mold their images in the shape of how the West perceives it. Here, that opportunity doesn’t exist. On the surface, this seems like a destabilizing strategy for militant groups, but in reality, it merely exacerbates the threat by giving it no ideological boundaries to operate in. The violence becomes random, and hobbles the ability to politically engage these groups.